ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ОБЪЕМОВ ЭНЕРГОПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ В ЗАВИСИМОСТИ ОТ ИСХОДНОЙ ИНФОРМАЦИИ

V.I. Domanov; A.I. Bilalova

doi:10.14529/power160208

Authors

V.I. Domanov Ulyanovsk State Technical University
A.I. Bilalova Ulyanovsk State Technical University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14529/power160208

Keywords:

power consumption, statistical analysis, forecasting, correlation coefficient, forecasting error

Abstract

The transition to market relations between power consumers and power supply systems leads to stricter
requirements to all market participants. Therefore, a power sales company has to face a severe competition in
the power retail market and to solve a problem of an efficient distribution of power acquired in the wholesale
market. A forecast value of power consumption is a reference indicator for further planning the rated power values
required for response to power consumer demand and minimizing the power production and transportation cost.
An inaccurate forecast results in a shortage or an excess of purchased power and makes the company buy or sell
electricity at a disadvantageous price. The problem of forecasting power consumption can be solved based on
data supplied by a power sales company. For this purpose, a forecast of power consumption with a minimum
error takes into account meteorological factors, too. Forecasts with different databases are considered. The stu-
dies have revealed a clear link between meteorological factors and power consumption, which is expressed in
the correlation coefficient. The most effective forecasting model is that with a great number of different input
databases.

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